Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS) is the leading cause of infant death within the first year of life. Death occurs suddenly and without identifiable cause. Clinical investigation and autopsy may not reveal evidence of SIDS. SIDS is therefore a diagnosis of exclusion (after excluding other possibilities, such as trauma, child abuse, or poisoning). Other diagnostic methods may include radiology, microbiology, and histology. Although the cause of SIDS is still unknown, several risk factors have been identified. The recommendation to have infants sleep in a supine position has reduced the incidence of SIDS. Congenital and genetic risk factors have also been implicated in the syndrome.

Researchers in Cambridge, United Kingdom, recently published in the journal Pediatrics a model to estimate the risk of SIDS based on a retrospective study of 505011 singleton births. The model takes into account several demographic variables, including maternal age, marital status, parity, smoking status, birth weight, and sex of the child.

To estimate the risk of SIDS, the likelihood ratio for each variable is first determined through tables (available in the journal article). The likelihood ratios are then multiplied together: total LR = LR1 x LR2 x … x LRn. The total LR is used to calculate the post-test odds (post-test odds = pre-test odds x total LR). The risk of SIDS is 1/(post-test odds).

  • Source
  • Smith GC, White IR. Predicting the risk for sudden infant death syndrome from obstetric characteristics: a retrospective cohort study of 505011 live births. Pediatrics 2006;117;60-6.

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